%0 Journal Article %1 pirret2020assessing %A Pirret, Jennifer S. R. %A Daron, Joseph D. %A Bett, Philip E. %A Fournier, Nicolas %A Foamouhoue, Andre Kamga %D 2020 %I American Meteorological Society %J Weather and Forecasting %K climateservices myown precip reliability seasonal skill %P 1035–1050 %R 10.1175/waf-d-19-0168.1 %T Assessing the skill and reliability of seasonal climate forecasts in Sahelian West Africa %U https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0168.1 %V 35 %X Seasonal climate forecasts have the potential to support planning decisions and provide advanced warning to government, industry and communities to help reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions. Assessing the reliability of seasonal forecasts, generated using different models and methods, is essential to ensure their appropriate interpretation and use. Here we assess the reliability of forecasts for seasonal total precipitation in Sahelian West Africa, a region of high year-to-year climate variability. Through digitising forecasts issued from the regional climate outlook forum in West Africa known as PRESASS (PRÉvisions climatiques Saisonnières en Afrique Soudano-Sahélienne), we assess their reliability by comparing to CHIRPS observational data over the past 20 years. The PRESASS forecasts show positive skill and reliability, but a bias towards lower forecast probabilities in the below normal precipitation category. In addition, we assess the reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts for the same region using available global dynamical forecast models. We find all models have positive skill and reliability, but this varies geographically. On average, NCEP’s CFS and the ECMWF’s SEAS5 systems show greater skill and reliability than the Met Office’s GloSea5, and in turn than Météo-France’s Sys5, but one key caveat is that model performance might depend on the meteorological situation. We discuss the potential for improving use of dynamical model forecasts in the regional climate outlook forums, to improve the reliability of seasonal forecasts in the region and the objectivity of the seasonal forecasting process used in the PRESASS regional climate outlook forum.

@article{pirret2020assessing, abstract = {Seasonal climate forecasts have the potential to support planning decisions and provide advanced warning to government, industry and communities to help reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions. Assessing the reliability of seasonal forecasts, generated using different models and methods, is essential to ensure their appropriate interpretation and use. Here we assess the reliability of forecasts for seasonal total precipitation in Sahelian West Africa, a region of high year-to-year climate variability. Through digitising forecasts issued from the regional climate outlook forum in West Africa known as PRESASS (PRÉvisions climatiques Saisonnières en Afrique Soudano-Sahélienne), we assess their reliability by comparing to CHIRPS observational data over the past 20 years. The PRESASS forecasts show positive skill and reliability, but a bias towards lower forecast probabilities in the below normal precipitation category. In addition, we assess the reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts for the same region using available global dynamical forecast models. We find all models have positive skill and reliability, but this varies geographically. On average, NCEP’s CFS and the ECMWF’s SEAS5 systems show greater skill and reliability than the Met Office’s GloSea5, and in turn than Météo-France’s Sys5, but one key caveat is that model performance might depend on the meteorological situation. We discuss the potential for improving use of dynamical model forecasts in the regional climate outlook forums, to improve the reliability of seasonal forecasts in the region and the objectivity of the seasonal forecasting process used in the PRESASS regional climate outlook forum.}, added-at = {2020-03-29T15:02:19.000+0200}, author = {Pirret, Jennifer S. R. and Daron, Joseph D. and Bett, Philip E. and Fournier, Nicolas and Foamouhoue, Andre Kamga}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/234a12fd35c9188bd1835c9cc7c6826b2/pbett}, doi = {10.1175/waf-d-19-0168.1}, interhash = {6f4d2e923e3ed95c9cb7fb4b088f119c}, intrahash = {34a12fd35c9188bd1835c9cc7c6826b2}, journal = {Weather and Forecasting}, keywords = {climateservices myown precip reliability seasonal skill}, month = jun, pages = { 1035–1050}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, timestamp = {2020-05-07T10:38:58.000+0200}, title = {Assessing the skill and reliability of seasonal climate forecasts in Sahelian West Africa}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0168.1}, volume = 35, year = 2020 }