Article,
A corrected hybrid approach for wind speed prediction in Hexi Corridor of China
Energy, 36 (3): 1668--1679 (Mar 1, 2011)
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.12.063
Abstract
Wind energy has been well recognized as a renewable resource in electricity generation, which is environmentally friendly, socially beneficial and economically competitive. For proper and efficient evaluation of wind energy, a hybrid Seasonal Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average and Least Square Support Vector Machine (SARIMA–LSSVM) model is significantly developed to predict the mean monthly wind speed in Hexi Corridor. The design concept of combining the Seasonal Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method with the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) algorithm shows more powerful forecasting capacity for monthly wind speed prediction at wind parks, when compared with the single Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), SARIMA, LSSVM models and the hybrid Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average and Support Vector Machine (ARIMA–SVM) model. To verify the developed approach, the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2006 in Mazong Mountain and Jiuquan are used for model construction and model testing. The simulation and hypothesis test results show that the developed method is simple and quite efficient. ⺠Design concept of combining SARIMA model with LSSVM algorithm is novel for wind speed time series prediction. ⺠On the issue of monthly wind speed prediction, the hybrid SARIMA–LSSVM model obtains more accurate forecasting values when compared to the single ARIMA model, the single SARIMA model, the single LSSVM model and the hybrid ARIMA–SVM model. ⺠The developed hybrid SARIMA–LSSVM model is simple but very efficient through the simulation process.
