%0 Journal Article %1 RichardsonStone1971 %A Richardson, Henry R. %A Stone, Lawrence D. %D 1971 %J Naval Research Logistics %K bayesianinference optimalsearch %P 141--157 %T Operations analysis during the underwater search for Scorpion %V 18 %X This paper discusses the operations analysis in the underwater search for the remains of the submarine Scorpion. The a priori target location probability distribution for the search was obtained by monte-carlo procedures based upon nine different scenarios concerning the Scorpion loss and associated credibility weights. These scenarios and weights were postulated by others. Scorpion was found within 260 yards of the search grid cell having the largest a priori probability. Frequent computations of local effectiveness probabilities (LEPs) were carried out on scene during the search and were used to determine an updated (a posteriori) target location distribution. This distribution formed the basis for recommendation of the current high probability areas for search. The sum of LEPs weighted by the a priori target location probabilties is called search effectiveness (SEP) and was used as the overall measure of efffectiveness for the operation. SEP and LEPs were used previously in the Mediterranean H-bomb search. On-scene and stateside operations analysis are discussed and the progress of the search is indicated by values of SEP for various periods during the operation.

@article{RichardsonStone1971, abstract = {This paper discusses the operations analysis in the underwater search for the remains of the submarine Scorpion. The a priori target location probability distribution for the search was obtained by monte-carlo procedures based upon nine different scenarios concerning the Scorpion loss and associated credibility weights. These scenarios and weights were postulated by others. Scorpion was found within 260 yards of the search grid cell having the largest a priori probability. Frequent computations of local effectiveness probabilities (LEPs) were carried out on scene during the search and were used to determine an updated (a posteriori) target location distribution. This distribution formed the basis for recommendation of the current high probability areas for search. The sum of LEPs weighted by the a priori target location probabilties is called search effectiveness (SEP) and was used as the overall measure of efffectiveness for the operation. SEP and LEPs were used previously in the Mediterranean H-bomb search. On-scene and stateside operations analysis are discussed and the progress of the search is indicated by values of SEP for various periods during the operation.}, added-at = {2009-06-12T13:06:04.000+0200}, author = {Richardson, Henry R. and Stone, Lawrence D.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2f307761db534da2e5567e2780d8c07b9/tmalsburg}, interhash = {353281ba3295914615c3437ca2a40fa0}, intrahash = {f307761db534da2e5567e2780d8c07b9}, journal = {Naval Research Logistics}, keywords = {bayesianinference optimalsearch}, pages = {141--157}, timestamp = {2009-06-12T13:06:05.000+0200}, title = {{Operations analysis during the underwater search for Scorpion}}, volume = 18, year = 1971 }