%0 Generic %1 threat %A Marusek, James A. %A General, A. %D 2007 %K threat %T Solar Storm Threat Analysis %U http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.129.6527 %X Abstract Most solar storms produce only minor disquieting affects on Earth. Typically one might expect short-term electrical power blackouts, short lived communication outages, rerouting of aircraft, loss of a few satellites and a beautiful “aurora borealis ” in the nights sky from a large solar storm. But as the intensity of a solar storm increases like a wild beast, the storm can begin to develop the capacity to create a major disaster on Earth. The difference in solar storm intensity is like the difference between being hit with a tropical rainstorm and being devastated by a Category 5 hurricane. The solar storm of 1-2 September 1859, which began with a solar flare so strong that it was subsequently named the Carrington Flare, was such a beast. Oak Ridge National Laboratories estimated that only a solar storm just slightly stronger than the 13 March 1989 storm (Dst = 589 nT) would have the capacity to produce a cascading blackout involving the entire Northeastern sector of the United States. So the question is “What damage would a spawned geomagnetic storm like the one of 2 September 1859 (Dst = 1,760 nT) bring?” Would it simultaneously degrade and damage several unique large electrical transformers at key electrical generating stations taking down the massive power grid? Would the long lead-time required to manufacture and install replacement equipment result in major year long electrical blackouts, rolling blackouts and brownouts? How would a long-term lack of stable electricity affect advanced civilization? This paper dissects and analyzes the various threats created by Great solar storms.

@misc{threat, abstract = {[Abstract] Most solar storms produce only minor disquieting affects on Earth. Typically one might expect short-term electrical power blackouts, short lived communication outages, rerouting of aircraft, loss of a few satellites and a beautiful “aurora borealis ” in the nights sky from a large solar storm. But as the intensity of a solar storm increases like a wild beast, the storm can begin to develop the capacity to create a major disaster on Earth. The difference in solar storm intensity is like the difference between being hit with a tropical rainstorm and being devastated by a Category 5 hurricane. The solar storm of 1-2 September 1859, which began with a solar flare so strong that it was subsequently named the Carrington Flare, was such a beast. Oak Ridge National Laboratories estimated that only a solar storm just slightly stronger than the 13 March 1989 storm (Dst = 589 nT) would have the capacity to produce a cascading blackout involving the entire Northeastern sector of the United States. So the question is “What damage would a spawned geomagnetic storm like the one of 2 September 1859 (Dst = 1,760 nT) bring?” Would it simultaneously degrade and damage several unique large electrical transformers at key electrical generating stations taking down the massive power grid? Would the long lead-time required to manufacture and install replacement equipment result in major year long electrical blackouts, rolling blackouts and brownouts? How would a long-term lack of stable electricity affect advanced civilization? This paper dissects and analyzes the various threats created by Great solar storms.}, added-at = {2014-03-31T17:10:48.000+0200}, author = {Marusek, James A. and General, A.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/27331dc52bedc79aab1d24ac8ac34b9a4/emmamryan}, description = {CiteSeerX — Solar Storm Threat Analysis}, interhash = {849364bd8e18fec9bd73e75a91d2776f}, intrahash = {7331dc52bedc79aab1d24ac8ac34b9a4}, keywords = {threat}, timestamp = {2014-03-31T17:10:48.000+0200}, title = {Solar Storm Threat Analysis}, url = {http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.129.6527}, year = 2007 }