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The Temporal Stage fallacy: A novel statistical fallacy in the medical literature.

, and . Medicine, health care, and philosophy, 9 (2): 243-7 (January 2006)4808<m:linebreak></m:linebreak>JID: 9815900; ppublish;<m:linebreak></m:linebreak>Mesures d&#039;associació.
DOI: 10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2

Abstract

Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications--e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.

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