Article,

Do land surface models need to include differential plant species responses to drought? Examining model predictions across a mesic-xeric gradient in Europe

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Biogeosciences, (2015)

Abstract

Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe, making it essential that land surface models (LSMs) used in coupled climate models realistically capture the drought responses of veg- etation. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitiv- ity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art LSMs currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. We tested whether vari- able drought sensitivities are needed to explain the observed large-scale patterns of drought impact on the carbon, water and energy fluxes. We implemented data-driven drought sen- sitivities in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Ex- change (CABLE) LSM and evaluated alternative sensitivi- ties across a latitudinal gradient in Europe during the 2003 heatwave. The model predicted an overly abrupt onset of drought unless average soil water potential was calculated with dynamic weighting across soil layers. We found that high drought sensitivity at the most mesic sites, and low drought sensitivity at the most xeric sites, was necessary to accurately model responses during drought. Our results in- dicate that LSMs will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.

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